The “Invisible” Election on the opposite side of the globe

The “Invisible” Election on the opposite side of the globe

As the U.S. marches into the presidential election season, on the other side of the globe, an election that could determine the future political landscape in East Asia has quietly finished. For the third time in a row, the candidate from the Democratic Progressive Party, this year being Vice President Lai Ching-te, won the Taiwanese presidential election, defeating candidates Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party. Out of the 14 million votes cast, Lai won over 5.6 million, mounting just over 40%, while Hou and Ko secured respectively about 33.5% and 26.5% of the votes.

If examining the numbers of the election results closely, one would easily notice the complexity of the current political landscape in Taiwan. For the first time since the 2000 Taiwan election, the winning candidate garnered less than 50% of the total vote. This lack of a clear majority not only marks the end of Taiwan’s two-party system but also signifies a divided public opinion on the direction Taiwan should take, especially in terms of its future relationship with Beijing. 

The fragmentation of ideas is also shown in the legislative election. For the first time since 2004, no political party has won a majority of the seats in Taiwan's legislature. The Kuomintang won 52 seats, while the Democratic Progressive Party retained 51 seats. However, to most people’s surprise, the Taiwan People’s Party, a political party founded merely five years ago, secured eight seats. Since approval from more than half of the members of the Legislative Yuan is required to push forward a new policy, getting support from the Taiwan People’s Party becomes crucial for the new president if he hopes to make major legislative changes. 

Despite the somewhat bitter victory, the new president of Taiwan, Lai, expressed his gratitude during a post-election news conference, thanking the electorate for “writing a new chapter in our democracy.”

“Taiwan will continue to walk side by side with democracies from around the world ... through our actions,” said Lai. “The Taiwanese people have successfully resisted efforts from external forces to influence this election.”

The wording used in Lai’s speech is particularly interesting as he is known as a firm supporter of the Taiwan independence movement. The speech highlights an awareness of the external pressures faced by Taiwan, particularly from China, and a commitment to democracy and international cooperation. This stance is likely to influence Taiwan's foreign policy and its interactions with both allies and adversaries. The emphasis on resisting external influence and aligning with democracies worldwide suggests a continued focus on strengthening international partnerships to support Taiwan's sovereignty and democratic values.

In the aftermath of the election, official statements from China reiterated its commitment to the "One China" principle, emphasizing that it does not recognize Taiwan as a separate sovereign entity. Chinese authorities framed the election results as “proof that the winning of Lai does not represent the mainstream opinion of the society”. The government continued with a narrative that underscores the DPP's policies as provocative and destabilizing to cross-strait relations. Beijing's rhetoric portrayed the DPP's governance as a barrier to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, warning of the consequences of any moves deemed as supporting Taiwanese independence.

China's reaction could also manifest in more tangible forms, such as increased military posturing around the Taiwan Strait. In recent years, Beijing has escalated its display of military might, including frequent incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone and naval exercises in nearby waters, as a show of strength and a means to intimidate or coerce Taipei. The election of a DPP president, particularly one who has not shied away from expressing a strong stance on Taiwan's self-determination, might prompt China to intensify these activities as a signal of its displeasure and a reminder of its military capabilities. 

However, will there be a war? And if there is, when is it going to happen? I hope we never find out.